Closing Market Report

As US farmers finish the fall harvest, considerable speculation will occur over the next few months about the acreage decisions they’ll make for 2019. Todd Gleason discusses how current market conditions support an acreage increase next year for corn and a reduction for soybeans with University of Illinois agricultural economist Todd Hubbs. farmdocDaily article by Todd Hubbs, University of Illinois Prospects for 2019 crop acreage levels begin with expectations about planted acreage for principal crops. In 2018, acreage planted in principal field crops expanded to 322 million acres, up 2.9 million acres from the previous year. A large share of increased acreage came from an expansion of spring wheat acreage by 2.18 million acres, cotton acreage by 1.4 million acres, and hay acreage by 1.28 million acres. Corn and soybean acreage decreased by 1.03 and .997 million acres respectively. Illinois increased planted acreage by 188,000 acres like most of the primary Corn Belt states....

ifr181019–268 VOICER What to do about 2019 Cash Rents Gary Schnitkey, Agricultural Economist - University of Illinois Farm income this year, once the Market Facilitation Program payments are thrown in, look to be about average. However, next year is a much bigger problem says Gary Schnitkey from the University of Illinois. One that farmers and landowners need to tackle when they set cash rents. Schnitkey :24 …cash rent might be a good thing for next year. Quote Summary - Flexibility is a key. I would suggest lowering cash rents if at all possible. You know, there is always this possibility that things change if something miraculous happens and we get back to $9.50 soybean prices or we have another Market Facilitation Program payment next year. So, building in a variable cash rent might be a good thing for next year. If you’d like to explore possible variable cash rent agreements you can find examples online. Search Google for “variable cash rent leas...

ifr181019–265 Take a Good Hard Look at Selling Soybeans Todd Hubbs, Agricultural Economist - University of Illinois read farmdocDaily article The price of soybeans rallied out of the October USDA Crop Production report. This is because it showed fewer acres of the crop would be harvested this season. Todd Gleason reports one university analyst thinks the upside potential is very limited. I don’t know if this thing is sustainable… 2:26 radio 2:40 radio self-contained Hubbs :25 …the upside potential is limited. Quote Summary - I don’t know if this thing is sustainable. It doesn’t feel that way to me. Moving through the rest of the harvest year and towards the start of 2019 I think we are going to have to see some kind of production issues in the South American crop or if China breaks and doesn’t holdout completely on taking U.S. soybeans before we see a sustained upward movement. I think the upside potential is limited. Limited be...

ifr181019–263 A Good Year for Pumpkins Mohammad Babadoost, Plant Pathologist - University of Illinois This year’s pumpkin crop is the best in the last two decades. Todd Gleason reports that means there will be plenty of jack-o-lanterns for Halloween and lots of pie filling for Thanksgiving. When the pumpkin crop… 1:15 radio 1:28 radio self-contained 1:19 tv 1:31 tv cg When the pumpkin crop in Illinois is big that means the whole nation can celebrate fall says Mohammad Babadoost from the Univeristy of Illinois. Babadoost :10 …far ahead of any other state. Quote Summary - We are number one in both of them, jack-o-lantern and processing pumpkins. Far, far ahead of any other state. More than 90% of the pumpkin pie filling sold in the United States comes from two processing plants located near Peoria, Illinois. This year the pumpkins feeding into those plants are yielding a record breaking 27 tons per acre. The average is about 23. This is pretty...

ifr181012–259 Reviewing Prices and Market Facilitation Payments Gary Schnitkey, Agricultural Economist - University of Illinois read farmdocDaily article As the trade conflict with China continues, prices for many agricultural commodities remain relatively low. Illinois corn and soybean prices dipped to new lows in September, coinciding with the latest rounds of tariffs. The difference between selling an entire crop at spring forward bid prices compared to the September average cash prices makes a substantial difference in income on an average central Illinois grain farm. University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Gary Schnitkey reviews how this plays out on a 1700 acre corn and soybean farm in Illinois this year, and what the prospects look like for next year.

ifr181012–258 Trump Admin Still Has Some Biofuels Work to Do Scott Irwin, Agricultural Economist - University of Illinois Last Tuesday President Donald Trump made a campaign trip to Council Bluffs, Iowa. There, as Todd Gleason reports, he told a very excited crowd his administration would be backing corn farmers and ethanol. 2:14 radio 2:27 radio self-contained 2:14 tv 2:27 tv cg The President leaned into the mic and gave corn farmers a little insider news they’ve been clamoring to hear since U.S. EPA pronounced gasoline blended with 15 percent ethanol would be ok to use in all cars made since 2001. Trump :08 …we are going with E15 year-round. Quote Summary - We are a little bit early. I shouldn’t say it now, but we are going with E15 year-round. Mr. Trump is a little early. Today E15 can be used about 9 months out of the year in much of the nation. During those other three months, the summer months, it has been prohibited. U.S. EPA will need...

ifr181012–256 Expected E15 Announcement No Big Deal Scott Irwin, Agricultural Economist - University of Illinois President Trump at his Council Bluffs, Iowa rally Tuesday is expected to announce a waiver to allow year-round use of gasoline blended with 15% ethanol (E15). Todd Gleason reports it may make little difference in how much corn is used to make ethanol.

ifr181012–253 2019 Illinois Crop Budgets are Dismal Gary Schnitkey, Agricultural Economist - University of Illinois If the numbers pan out next year will be dismal for Illinois grain farmers. Todd Gleason has more on the reasons why…. The numbers look bad for Illinois grain farmers… 1:17 radio 1:24 radio self-contained The numbers look bad for Illinois grain farmers next year. That’s the only conclusion Gary Schnitkey can draw when he puts the costs up against the incomes for corn and soybeans in 2019. Schnitkey, an ag economist at the Univesity of Illinois, says fuel and fertilizer costs are expected to go up. Prices aren’t and that’s the dismal part. Schnitkey :30 …what that has done to commodity prices. Quote Summary - Probably the one thing that has changed relative to recent years is that corn is expected to be more profitable than soybeans. Again, that is largely due to our use of $3.60 for a 2019 corn price and $8.50 for s...